Beat Blackjack Now! by Frank Scoblete

Author:Frank Scoblete
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: Triumph Books LLC
Published: 2013-03-18T16:00:00+00:00

14. Blackjack Superstitions

Blackjack superstitions are good to pretend to believe in when you are at the tables. It just makes you appear stupid, a thing we harp on. Stupid is good. Smart is bad. These superstitions are stupid. That is good—as long as you don’t really believe them, which would be bad. I think that made sense; didn’t it?

The Superstition: Bad players at the table will cause you to lose.

The Truth: The third baseman has a 16 and the dealer is showing a 6 as his up-card. The third baseman decides to hit and gets a 10, busting him. The dealer turns over his hole card and has a 10. The dealer now has 16. The dealer takes a hit and gets a 5, making his hand a 21.

Is the third baseman, who is obviously a poor player, responsible for your losing?

If you said yes, you are wrong.

Take a look at the scenario. There are two cards that can come up next, a 5 or a 10, or a 10 and a 5. We don’t know what order the cards are in. If the third baseman decides to hit, there is a 50-50 chance he will get the 5 and the dealer will get the 10, or there is a 50-50 chance that the third baseman will get the 10 and the dealer will get the 5.

If the third baseman decides to stand, there is a 50-50 chance that the dealer will get the 5 and a 50-50 chance that the dealer will get the 10, busting him.

It’s 50-50 no matter what the third baseman does.

The Superstition: A new player entering a game in the middle of the shoe screws up the order of the cards.

The Truth: Okay, go back to the example above. There are two cards that might come out, a 5 or a 10. Instead of the third baseman making a poor move, a new player entered the game just before this round was dealt. What card will the dealer get? If the new player can screw up the order of the cards, should those two cards be changed in some way? But they aren’t.

There is no order to the cards. You can’t see the cards, so you have no idea what order they are in. A new player might make the hands better or worse or not change anything at all—because a new player has no control over anything.

Those two cards are a 50-50 event at the end of the round. The dealer will either bust, or he’ll make it to 21.

The Superstition: Always stand on a soft hand such as A:5 because if you hit or double, it will get worse.

The Truth: Continuing with the above scenario, you are now at third base. The dealer is still showing his 6. You can take a hit or double down (doubling is the right move). The two cards to come out are still a 5 and a 10, but we don’t know what order they are in. Will doubling help or hurt you?

It’s a 50-50 proposition again.

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